The Prospects of Trump’s Reelection in 2024 and What It Means for the World

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws near, the possibility of former President Donald Trump reclaiming the presidency is becoming more likely. Back in 2016, when Trump first appeared with his “Make America Great Again” slogan, many believed his chances of winning were slim. Yet, Trump surprised everyone by winning the election and becoming the 45th President of the United States. His own surprise was evident during his inauguration.

Now, in 2024, Trump is aiming for a comeback. Within the Republican Party, there’s no significant competitor to challenge him. Trump’s recent victories in the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary have made a rematch with President Joe Biden increasingly likely. So, the big question is: Will Trump succeed in his bid for reelection? And if he does, what should the world be prepared for?

Currently, President Biden’s approval ratings are trailing behind Trump’s in five out of the six key battleground states. With major media outlets also predicting a Trump victory, the international community is on edge. During his first term, Trump’s “America First” policies were characterized by unilateral and protectionist moves, causing significant disruption and resentment among trade partners. The Economist has even listed Trump’s potential reelection as one of the biggest threats to the world in 2024.

If Trump wins, the alliance-first approach of the Biden administration is likely to be abandoned. During his first term (January 2017 – January 2021), Trump used little-known trade laws (sections 201, 232, 301 of the U.S. Trade Act) to impose high tariffs on foreign-produced steel and aluminum, as well as Chinese goods, prioritizing American interests. He also renegotiated trade agreements he felt were unfavorable to the U.S. This led to the U.S. withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and renegotiating NAFTA (now USMCA) and the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) to favor American interests.

A second Trump administration would likely continue along the same lines, with an even stronger “America First” stance. Reports suggest that Trump plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on all imports and classify China as a hostile nation, subjecting all Chinese goods to a 60% tariff. Considering that the Trump camp has identified imported automobiles and auto parts, including those from South Korea, as significant contributors to the U.S. trade deficit, these goods are likely to be targeted with new tariffs.